The 2024 general election results, both nationally and in New Jersey, have indicated a range of significant political shifts and emerging trends. The victory of former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, alongside other key outcomes in New Jersey’s congressional and Senate races, has set the stage for a transformative period in both state and federal politics.
Federally, Republicans will now control the U.S. Senate and likely the House of Representatives once all the races are called. While in New Jersey, Democrats held onto all nine of their current congressional seats and made history by electing the first Korean American United States Senator, Representative Andy Kim, and the first Latina Congresswoman, State Senator Nellie Pou. Despite such victories, the result was far different than expected leading up to Election Day, with a surge in Republican turnout minimizing Democratic margins.
Below are some key takeaways:
Presidential Election
In a historic comeback, Donald Trump has been elected the 47th President of the United States, making a return to the White House after losing his bid for re-election in 2020. Trump’s victory was underscored by his strong performance in critical battleground states, with immigration and economic issues emerging as central themes in his campaign. The Republican strategy focused on these issues seemed to resonate deeply with voters, eclipsing the Democratic focus on reproductive rights and the broader theme of defending American democracy.
Trump’s win is notable not only for its national significance but also because it makes him the first president since the late 1800s to win non-consecutive terms. Nationally, Trump secured 295 electoral votes. While Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly clinched New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes with a five-point victory, Trump’s strong showing across the state, including a notable victory in Passaic County, signaled growing Republican support among traditionally Democratic-leaning populations.
Contested New Jersey Congressional Races
New Jersey’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives maintained its composition of nine Democrats and three Republicans. However, the state witnessed significant Republican gains in several key races, indicating a surge in GOP support in the usually blue-leaning state. Notably, Representative Tom Kean Jr. decisively defeated Democrat Sue Altman in the state’s 7th Congressional District, winning by nearly 28,000 votes. Kean’s victory, which defied initial expectations of a tighter race, was part of a broader Republican trend across the state, particularly in suburban and rural districts.
Other significant victories for the Democrats include Representatives Josh Gottheimer (D-5th District) and Mikie Sherrill (D-11th District), who both held their seats with strong performances. Notably, both are expected to enter the race for the New Jersey governorship next year.
In CD-3, sitting Democratic Assemblyman Herb Conaway was elected with a margin of victory of 53% over Republican Rajesh Mohan’s 45%. In CD-8, Representative Rob Menendez, Jr. battled it out and won re-election against Anthony Valdes with a sweeping margin of victory of 59% to 35%. In CD-10, Representative LaMonica McIver prevailed in the special election following the passing of Congressman Donald Payne. One of the standout surprises of this election cycle was the tight race in CD-9, where Democratic Representative Bill Pascrell’s successor, Nellie Pou, won with a narrower-than-expected 50.6% of the vote. Pou, who will become the first Latina to represent New Jersey in Congress, triumphed over Republican challenger Billy Prempeh by a slim margin, highlighting the increasingly competitive nature of the state’s traditionally blue districts.
What Comes Next: 2025 and Beyond
Looking ahead to 2025, New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be crowded and contentious on both sides. Historically, the governor’s race in New Jersey has seen a “slingshot effect” where voters choose a candidate from the opposing party of a newly-elected president. But, coming off eight years with a Democratic governor, and given the gains in electoral margins that Republicans just witnessed, both parties have reasons for confidence and concern.
In Washington, we are sure to see a shift in policy priorities driven by the Trump administration and new leadership in the Senate. We can expect the new Congress to take sweeping action on key issues including taxes and tariffs, energy production, health care, and the growth of emerging technologies like AI and cryptocurrencies.
McCarter & English’s Government Affairs practice is well positioned to navigate this critical moment of change both in Washington and Trenton. As always, we are committed to keeping you informed about the latest advancements and opportunities. Should you have any questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact the authors of this alert or any member of McCarter’s Government Affairs team.